Twenty-one percent of the time, it works every time
The web site coolstandings.com calculates the odds that any big league team will make the playoffs, based upon both current record and past performance.
The bad news for the Mets? Heading into Wednesday’s play, coolstandings estimated there’s only a 21.9 percent chance the Mets will make the postseason.
The good news? It’s not as scientific as it seems. Coolstandings bases its calculations partly upon current record, partly upon comparative run differential. (For example: if Team X averages 5.5 runs per game and Team Y averages 4.5 runs allowed, then Team X can expect to score an average of five runs per game against Team Y. Dig?)
The calculations provide a nice glimpse into a team’s chances, but little else. They don’t take into account, for example, the fact that the Mets should get Carlos Beltran back after the All-Star break, or that they may not continue to receive routinely stellar outings from R.A. Dickey.
But the web site is, as the name suggests, pretty cool. For the record, coolstandings predicts that the Mets will win the division 15.4 percent of the time, the Wild Card 6.5 pecent of the time. The Braves, who have the top run differential in the division, are predicted to make the playoffs 54.3 percent of the time. The Phillies? Just a 27.8 percent chance.
So again, take all that with a sizable grain of salt.