Twenty-one percent of the time, it works every time

The web site coolstandings.com calculates the odds that any big league team will make the playoffs, based upon both current record and past performance.

The bad news for the Mets? Heading into Wednesday’s play, coolstandings estimated there’s only a 21.9 percent chance the Mets will make the postseason.

The good news? It’s not as scientific as it seems. Coolstandings bases its calculations partly upon current record, partly upon comparative run differential. (For example: if Team X averages 5.5 runs per game and Team Y averages 4.5 runs allowed, then Team X can expect to score an average of five runs per game against Team Y. Dig?)

The calculations provide a nice glimpse into a team’s chances, but little else. They don’t take into account, for example, the fact that the Mets should get Carlos Beltran back after the All-Star break, or that they may not continue to receive routinely stellar outings from R.A. Dickey.

But the web site is, as the name suggests, pretty cool. For the record, coolstandings predicts that the Mets will win the division 15.4 percent of the time, the Wild Card 6.5 pecent of the time. The Braves, who have the top run differential in the division, are predicted to make the playoffs 54.3 percent of the time. The Phillies? Just a 27.8 percent chance.

So again, take all that with a sizable grain of salt.

2 Comments

I would like your comments on last night’s move by Jerry Manual re: the double switch in the 8th. Gary Matthews, Jr. coming in for JF so that KROD wouldn’t bat third. The Mets were leading 1-0 and, forgetting about the fact that Matthews’ bat is anemic this year, he just replaced one of the best defensive outfielders in the game with . . . well, Gary Matthews, Jr. It seems like textbook baseball maneuvering without regard to reality. Manuel may have a mellow disposition that allows the team to keep a relative even keel. I still think he should be fired.

bgsmooke, I totally agree. When watching that game, I remember seeing GMJ come to the plate and thought “well, here’s an out”. The Mets need to start realizing when they have made a bad move and it has gotten worse. It seems like GMJ has seen first base less then a pimple faced kid in high school. Here is what I would suggest: Cut GMJ and Ollie P (eat the money). Fire Manuel for all these type of bone headed changes he makes. Put Castillo on the DL until both his feet heal. Call up Tejada to take his place, Niese can take Ollie P’s spot and then you have room for one more roster spot which (hopefully) can be temporarily filled until Beltran returns. Oh, and maybe send Valdez to the minors to work out whatever has happened to him recently.

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